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Based on Captain Blelly’s hypothesis, the complete trajectory has been analysed from the rerouting of the flight at IGARI until a controlled ditching. The report is available in English and in French with their supporting Excel file.
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The trajectory includes two parts: the first one is called the knownn trajectory because their are unndisputable surveillance data, the second part is called the unknown trajectory as the only piece of information available is the Inmarsat data. The analysis details how the rerouting at waypoint IGARI took place just after leaving the FIR Kuala Lumpur and in avoiding the Thai ADIZ. Then the aircraft came back and manually overflew Malaysia until Penang Island where the copilot’s mobile phone was detected. Still manually piloted and heading to the north of Sumatra, it disappeared from the radar surveillance before turning southwest between Sumatra and the Andaman Islands. The end of this Final Major Turn (FMT) leads to a route to the south (initially magnetic at 188° then true at 178°). After the flame-out of the right engine, the left engine was volontarily manually shut down leading to a controlled glide and a controlled ditching. The aircraft has been always piloted by an experienced qualified person.
Subsequently, a new search area is proposed for potential future searches of the wreck as recently evoked by Ocean Infinity.
Considering the small set of available evidences, clear hypotheses must be made upfront when reconstructing the MH370 potential trajectory. The first major hypothesis is to consider whether the person in command went for a fatal journey of no return or aimed to land somewhere safely. The hypothesis of a technical failure has been proven to be unlikely.
Fundamentally, this discriminates the type of trajectory because either it leads to the middle of nowhere in the South Indian Ocean or it aims to reaching a potential Australian airfield.
Both types of trajectoriy fully piloted until the end are addressed here:
- Captain Blelly proposes a reconstructed trajectory based on the nefarious one-way journey hypothesis. His aeronautical analysis is based on a pilot perspective reproducing pilot’s decisions in full coherence from the begining until the very end with a controlled ditching.
- CAPTION trajectory, and previously CAPTIO, are based on the hypothesis that Australian airfields were the targets for a safe landing but none could be reached. Thus the flight ended by a controlled ditching.