On March 7, 2014, in the southern Indian Ocean, after flying around Sumatra, flight MH370 likely crossed paths with a very small number of other flights as shown in this analysis. More...
2025 Search for the wreckage: Armada 78-06 Phase 2 completed
View the ship’s progress here.
On 10 March, 13:38 UTC, Ocean Infinity Armada 78-06 appears to be heading towards the Blelly/Marchand area as recommended in the report. It is currently approximately 160 Nm from it and the trajectory is pointing south of the recommended area (see image below). This coincides with the south-east corner of Ocean Infinity’s area presented in March 2024.
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The fully piloted trajectory
Based on Captain Blelly’s hypothesis, the complete trajectory has been analysed from the rerouting of the flight at IGARI until a controlled ditching. The report is available in English and in French with their supporting Excel file.
The trajectory includes two parts: the first one is called the knownn trajectory because their are unndisputable surveillance data, the second part is called the unknown trajectory as the only piece of information available is the Inmarsat data. The analysis details how the rerouting at waypoint IGARI took place just after leaving the FIR Kuala Lumpur and in avoiding the Thai ADIZ. Then the aircraft came back and manually overflew Malaysia until Penang Island where the copilot’s mobile phone was detected. Still manually piloted and heading to the north of Sumatra, it disappeared from the radar surveillance before turning southwest between Sumatra and the Andaman Islands. The end of this Final Major Turn (FMT) leads to a route to the south (initially magnetic at 188° then true at 178°). After the flame-out of the right engine, the left engine was volontarily manually shut down leading to a controlled glide and a controlled ditching. The aircraft has been always piloted by an experienced qualified person.
Subsequently, a new search area is proposed for potential future searches of the wreck as recently evoked by Ocean Infinity.
Considering the small set of available evidences, clear hypotheses must be made upfront when reconstructing the MH370 potential trajectory. The first major hypothesis made in this study is to consider that the person in command went for a fatal journey of no return. The hypothesis of a technical failure has been proven to be unlikely.
Captain Blelly proposes a reconstructed trajectory based on the nefarious one-way journey hypothesis. His aeronautical analysis is based on a pilot perspective reproducing pilot’s decisions in full coherence from the begining until the very end with a controlled ditching.
The results of our study were presented at the RAeS in London on 7 Sept. 2024. The video has been released on their Youtube channel.
Reference Digital Radar data
Available from Geoscience Australia, this data has been retreived and checked in depth. It has been also analysed in details and supports two important conclusions:
1- The flight was piloted manually
2- The flight level was most likely levelled at FL300 or FL320 or a combination of both and an emergency descent was probably simulated after depressurising the aircraft
Analysis report on Digital Malaysian radar data report.
Technical documentation
In depth technical reports are available on this page.
(Last Update of the site: 27 Feb. 2025)